Best Bets For Women’s Cup Match Between Chicago And Louisville Wednesday

Written By Antonio Maza on August 18, 2021

Women’s soccer clubs in Europe have begun with their preparation for their seasons and a handful of them have selected the United States as their location. This week, those friendlies take the form of two competitions: The Women’s Cup and the ICC (or International Champions Cup). Women’s Cup odds are live right now at regulated US sportsbooks.

Women’s Cup hosts and NWSL debutants Racing Louisville FC will face the Chicago Red Stars at 7:30 p.m. ET on Twitch while the two foreign teams are French champions Paris Saint – Germain and German league winners Bayern Munich.

Women’s Cup odds for Racing Louisville FC v Chicago Red Stars

In the true fashion of an NWSL matchup, trying to predict a game that doesn’t involve the Portland Thorns and/or the North Carolina Courage is quite a difficult task. Both teams have had very chaotic first halves of their seasons. That especially applies to Chicago.

SportsbookRacing to winDrawRed Stars to win
BetRivers/PlaySugarhouse Sportsbook+105+230+220
Caesars Sportsbook+120+210+210
DraftKings Sportsbook+125+235+225
Oregon Scoreboard+120+225+220
Unibet Sportsbook+105+230+220
PointsBet Sportsbook+120+245+225

Focusing attention on the host of the tourney, Christy Holly’s side has improved lately with some additions that have stabilized the team, like Gemma Bonner. Nadia Nadim and Ebony Salmon’s play has finally made them dangerous in the final third.

In fact, the cohesiveness of those two players will be key for Racing Louisville to hope for a place in the NWSL playoffs. The influence of the English Salmon has been quite important in terms of goalscoring and dangerous situations for the team.

Since her arrival, Racing Louisville has failed to have at least 1 xG (expected goal) in just two of their games, with the last one, Gotham, being 0.98.

If we dig deeper, according to Statsbomb and their Ps-xG (or the value of the xG once the shot is taken), their trend of attacking xG is upwards. It went above 1 for the first time in the season in the previously mentioned game against Gotham while their defensive xG is going down.

That defensive xG is still way above 1.5 in all of their games, though, showing that they still have work to do to stabilize their defense while they’re finding their footing up top.

Getting a feel for the Red Stars

On the other hand, Chicago started its season in a very chaotic way, conceding a lot of goals from situations that shouldn’t have ended with such a high scoreline. That included a 3-0 defeat at home against their opponent for Wednesday.

Since the departure of Tierna Davidson, Julie Ertz, and Alyssa Naeher to the Olympics, their defense has become more solid. The question that remains is if that drop in goals conceded is also influenced by the other teams’ absences due to Tokyo’s Olympics.

Either way, Rory Dames clearly has found a way to toughen up his backline. Worryingly, their attack hasn’t improved much.

Statsbomb’s attacking Ps-xG for the Red Stars is currently lower than the 1.4 average. As a matter of fact, this is one of the first games when it’s just above 1 (around 1.05). That can be attributed to Chicago relying too much on Mal Pugh – or own goals – to find the back of the net.

With this information, it’s fair to say that the safest wager on this match is Over 1.5 goals. Given the improvements of Racing Louisville, it’s worth looking at them on the 3-way moneyline, but not with a lot of confidence.

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Photo by Jon City/Associated Press
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Antonio Maza

NWSL Analitica writer/owner, video and data analyst

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