We’re on the verge of history, as both underdogs have a chance to close out their semifinal series at home tonight.
No team seeded fourth or worse has made the WNBA Finals under the current playoff format, but the No. 5 Phoenix Mercury and No. 6 Chicago Sky both have a shot at changing that with wins on Wednesday.
Given the chaos the lower seeds have provided, it’s no surprise that sportsbooks and bettors alike have had a tough time figuring out these games. Line movement hasn’t corresponded with results, and favorites have gone just 1-5 against the spread in the semis.
Let’s break down where that leaves us for tonight’s lines and odds on Canadian and US-regulated sportsbooks.
No. 1 Connecticut Sun at No. 6 Chicago Sky (8 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Sky pulled out a thrilling 86-83 win in Game 3 to move within a game of their second Finals appearance in franchise history.
Now, they’ll be even bigger underdogs in Game 4, as sportsbooks like the Sun to step up with their backs against the wall. After opening at Sun -2.5 and closing at Sun -4 for Game 2, the spread for tonight’s game at FanDuel Sportsbook is Sun -4.5.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Connecticut -4 -110 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154.5 -110 Under 154.5 -110 | Connecticut -185 Chicago +155 |
| BetAmerica/Twinspires Sportsbook | Connecticut -4 -113 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154 -112 Under 154 -112 | Connecticut -177 Chicago +145 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Connecticut -4.5 -105 Chicago +4.5 -115 | Over 155.5 -112 Under 155.5 -112 | Connecticut -177 Chicago +145 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Connecticut -4 -113 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154 -112 Under 154 -112 | Connecticut -177 Chicago +145 |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | Connecticut -4 -110 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154.5 -115 Under 154.5 -105 | Connecticut -180 Chicago +155 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Connecticut -4.5 -104 Chicago +4.5 -118 | Over 154.5 -112 Under 154.5 -108 | Connecticut -184 Chicago +148 |
| GambetDC | Connecticut -4.5 -115 Chicago +4.5 -135 | Over 154.5 -125 Under 154.5 -135 | Connecticut -192 Chicago +135 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Connecticut -4.5 -105 Chicago +4.5 -115 | Over 155.5 -110 Under 155.5 -110 | Connecticut -196 Chicago +165 |
| Proline Ontario | Connecticut -3.5 -125 Chicago +3.5 -115 | Over 155.5 -111 Under 155.5 -132 | Connecticut -200 Chicago +140 |
The over/under continues to climb as the Sky offense shows it can do the impossible and put points on the vaunted Connecticut defense. The current line of 155.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook is tied for the highest line in any Sun game since they played the uptempo Las Vegas Aces back on August 24. (That line was still just 156.)
Betting the totals in this series almost feels like betting on the winner. If the Sky play at their pace, this will go over and give them a good chance to win. For the Sun to win, they need to get back to their identity of grinding out games and keep this total under.
No. 2 Las Vegas Aces at No. 5 Phoenix Mercury (10 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Mercury barely covered their +6.5 spread in a six-point loss in Game 1 but they’ve absolutely obliterated it in the two games since. Phoenix has won the last two by a combined 53 points.
Despite those performances, the spread still sits at Las Vegas -1.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, which is right where it was for Game 3. If Phoenix can maintain anywhere close to their recent level of play, any points they get from the Aces may be worth taking.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Las Vegas -1.5 -110 Phoenix +1.5 -110 | Over 171.5 -110 Under 171.5 -110 | Las Vegas -120 Phoenix +100 |
| BetAmerica/Twinspires Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -112 Phoenix +1.5 -112 | Over 171.5 -113 Under 171.5 -110 | Las Vegas -124 Phoenix +102 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -110 Phoenix +1.5 -110 | Over 171.5 -115 Under 171.5 -105 | Las Vegas -120 Phoenix +100 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -112 Phoenix +1.5 -112 | Over 171.5 -113 Under 171.5 -110 | Las Vegas -124 Phoenix +102 |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1 -105 Phoenix +1 -115 | Over 171.5 -105 Under 171.5 -115 | Las Vegas -110 Phoenix -110 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -102 Phoenix +1.5 -120 | Over 171.5 -106 Under 171.5 -114 | Las Vegas -114 Phoenix -106 |
| GambetDC | Las Vegas -1.5 -145 Phoenix +1.5 -108 | Over 171.5 -120 Under 171.5 -130 | Las Vegas -120 Phoenix -115 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -110 Phoenix +1.5 -110 | Over 171.5 -110 Under 171.5 -110 | Las Vegas -125 Phoenix +105 |
| Proline Ontario | Las Vegas -1.5 -118 Phoenix +1.5 -120 | OTB OTB | Las Vegas -125 Phoenix -115 |
The totals in this series have been sporadic as well. After a reasonable game one that saw 186 points, Game 2 jumped all the way to 208 before game three fell to just 147.
It makes decisions very difficult for bettors — difficult enough that the current line 171.5 might be a “stay away” spot.
What could be a final look at markets for these series
Despite Chicago’s 2-1 lead, sportsbooks still view their series as essentially a coin flip. Caesars and PointsBet Sportsbook both have the lines at -110 for each team in this one.
The Mercury, on the other hand, have done enough to take control of the odds, although books aren’t in quite as much agreement. Caesars lists the Mercury at -160 to win the series and the Aces at +140, while PointsBet’s lines are at -200 and +165.
If you want to work the system, you can even bet on the Mercury -160 line and the Aces +165 line to guarantee yourself a profit.
