With both WNBA playoff series tied at one apiece, there’s plenty on the line in the game threes tonight! (Or, if you’re Rebecca Lobo, the “games three.”)
Home court has shifted, which means the lines have as well. Home court advantage only barely existed statistically in the WNBA this regular season, so let’s check out how much Canadian and US-regulated sportsbooks are reacting to it.
No. 1 Connecticut Sun at No. 6 Chicago Sky (1:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The spread in each of the first two games of this series hovered between Sun -7 and Sun -8, closing at 7.5 on both nights at most books.
As the teams take their six flights to the Windy City to get set for game three, the spread has moved to Sun – 3.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook. The four-point swing implies a home-court advantage of 2.5 points each way.
That would be a reasonable number based on historical data, but home teams this year only outscored road teams by 0.6 points per 100 possessions or well under half a point per game.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Connecticut -3.5 -115 Chicago +3.5 -105 | Over 153.5 -110 Under 153.5 -110 | Connecticut -170 Chicago +145 |
| BetAmerica/Twinspires Sportsbook | Connecticut -4 -113 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154 -112 Under 154 -112 | Connecticut -177 Chicago +145 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Connecticut -3.5 -110 Chicago +3.5 -110 | Over 152.5 -115 Under 152.5 -105 | Connecticut -165 Chicago +140 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Connecticut -4 -113 Chicago +4 -110 | Over 154 -112 Under 154 -112 | Connecticut -177 Chicago +145 |
| Caesars Sportsbook | Connecticut -3.5 -115 Chicago +3.5 -115 | Over 153.5 -115 Under 153.5 -115 | Connecticut -170 Chicago +140 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Connecticut -3.5 -115 Chicago +3.5 -105 | Over 154.5 -105 Under 154.5 -115 | Connecticut -176 Chicago +142 |
| GambetDC | Connecticut -3.5 -130 Chicago +3.5 -120 | Over 154.5 -120 Under 154.5 -130 | Connecticut -185 Chicago +130 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Connecticut -3.5 -115 Chicago +3.5 -105 | Over 153.5 -110 Under 153.5 -110 | Connecticut -171 Chicago +145 |
| Proline Ontario | Connecticut -2.5 -143 Chicago +2.5 +100 | Over 154.5 -111 Under 154.5 -132 | Connecticut -189 Chicago +130 |
Things haven’t changed in the playoffs. In fact, road teams have outscored home teams 696-681 through eight playoff games despite home teams being favored in seven of those eight games.
This could favor Connecticut in this game, and the next game has seen a similar movement…
No. 2 Las Vegas Aces at No. 5 Phoenix Mercury (3:00 p.m. ET, ABC)
The spread in this series stayed relatively stagnant through two games as well, moving between Aces -6 and Aces -6.5 on different sportsbooks at different times.
And like the first series, that number has moved by around five points, sitting anywhere from Aces -1 to Aces -2 depending on the book.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Las Vegas -2 -105 Phoenix +2 -115 | Over 173 -110 Under 173 -110 | Las Vegas -125 Phoenix +105 |
| BetAmerica/Twinspires Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1 -110 Phoenix +1 -113 | Over 172 -113 Under 172 -110 | Las Vegas -115 Phoenix +106 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -110 Phoenix +1.5 -110 | Over 172.5 -115 Under 172.5 -105 | Las Vegas -120 Phoenix +100 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1 -110 Phoenix +1 -113 | Over 172 -113 Under 172 -110 | Las Vegas -115 Phoenix +106 |
| Caesars Sportsbook | Las Vegas -2 -115 Phoenix +2 -115 | Over 172.5 -115 Under 172.5 -115 | Las Vegas -130 Phoenix +100 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Las Vegas -1.5 -115 Phoenix +1.5 -105 | Over 172.5 -112 Under 172.5 -108 | Las Vegas -132 Phoenix +108 |
| GambetDC | Las Vegas -1.5 -130 Phoenix +1.5 -120 | Over 172.5 -130 Under 172.5 -120 | Las Vegas -139 Phoenix +100 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Las Vegas -2 -110 Phoenix +2 -110 | Over 173 -110 Under 173 -110 | Las Vegas -125 Phoenix +105 |
| Proline Ontario | Las Vegas -1.5 -125 Phoenix +1.5 -115 | Over 171.5 -139 Under 171.5 -105 | Las Vegas -139 Phoenix -105 |
If books are giving five points for home court, that means they didn’t adjust this line any extra based on the beatdown the Mercury put on Las Vegas on Thursday night. Phoenix came away with a 26-point win on 117-points, flying by the over/under of 170.5 in the process.
That total has moved after that game, but only by one point. BetRivers Sportsbook lists it at 172 at the moment, so bettors will have to decide if Phoenix’s outburst was for real or a fluke.
Series markets for each semifinal matchup
Some sportsbooks have been offering moneylines on who will win each series. Their availability is hit or miss, but currently, Caesars Sportsbook has those lines up.
As expected in tied series, the top seeds are favored. Connecticut’s price is -265, and the Aces are listed at -185.
After their dominant game two performance, the Mercury are +165 to win the series, while the Sky are the biggest longshot to reach the Finals at +225.
