The WNBA Semifinals will get started tonight with the first games of each series on ESPN2.
The top two seeds — the Connecticut Sun and the Las Vegas Aces — will shake off the rust after over a week off and take on Sunday’s winners in a five-game series. Lines may move throughout the series, but let’s break down what game one of each matchup looks like from a betting standpoint.
No. 6 Chicago Sky at No. 1 Connecticut Sun (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
The Sun played like a team from a bygone era this season. Their combination of slow pace (aided by excellent offensive rebounding) and elite defense led to plenty of scores reminiscent of 2000s basketball.
That also led to success against the spread. The Sun covered in 22 of their 32 games in the regular season. MVP favorite Jonquel Jones will lead Connecticut in its quest for a title, which starts tonight as a seven-point favorite at BetRivers Sportsbook.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Chicago +7 -110 Connecticut -7 -110 | Over 152.5 -110 Under 152.5 -110 | Chicago +250 Connecticut -300 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Chicago +7 -110 Connecticut -7 -110 | Over 152.5 -110 Under 152.5 -110 | Chicago +260 Connecticut -350 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Chicago +7 -110 Connecticut -7 -115 | Over 152.5 -112 Under 152.5 -114 | Chicago +230 Connecticut -305 |
| Caesars Sportsbook | Chicago +7 -110 Connecticut -7 -110 | Over 152.5 -110 Under 152.5 -110 | Chicago +260 Connecticut -330 |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | Chicago +7.5 -110 Connecticut -7.5 -110 | Over 151.5 -120 Under 151.5 +100 | Chicago +260 Connecticut -335 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Chicago +7.5 -110 Connecticut -7.5 -110 | Over 152.5 -110 Under 152.5 -110 | Chicago +265 Connecticut -350 |
| GambetDC | Chicago +7.5 -125 Connecticut -7.5 -125 | Over 152.5 -125 Under 152.5 -125 | Chicago +240 Connecticut -370 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Chicago +7.5 -110 Connecticut -7.5 -110 | Over 152.5 -110 Under 152.5 -110 | Chicago +250 Connecticut -320 |
| Proline Ontario | Chicago +7.5 -118 Connecticut -7.5 -120 | Over 152.5 -120 Under 152.5 -120 | Chicago +225 Connecticut -370 |
Those numbers all point towards the Sun having an easy time in this series, but don’t count out the Sky. They have been a different team in the playoffs so far after a somewhat disappointing .500 record in the regular season.
Chicago’s league-worst mark of -3.42 points per game against the spread can all but be forgotten after two significant covers in the first two rounds last week.
The Sky covered their five-point spread against the Dallas Wings in round one with a 17-point win, and they followed that up on Sunday with a resounding 89-76 upset over the Minnesota Lynx as four-point underdogs.
Chicago also took two of the three regular-season meetings with the Sun, but Jones did not play in any of them.
No. 5 Phoenix Mercury at No. 2 Las Vegas Aces (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
After coming up short in the Finals last season, the Aces brought in Chelsea Gray over the offseason in addition to returning Kelsey Plum (injury) and Liz Cambage (2020 opt-out).
That new-look squad has still played Bill Laimbeer basketball in 2021. Las Vegas led the league in pace and scoring and continued to pound it inside. That will be tough to do against a team that starts a frontcourt of Brittney Griner and Brianna Turner, however.
The Aces are favored by 5.5 points at Caesars Sportsbook in tonight’s game. In order to cover that, the Mercury will need their frontcourt to step up inside.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 170 -110 Under 170 -110 | Phoenix +205 Las Vegas -245 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 170.5 -110 Under 170.5 -110 | Phoenix +200 Las Vegas -250 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -113 Las Vegas -5.5 -113 | Over 170.5 -113 Under 170.5 -113 | Phoenix +180 Las Vegas -230 |
| Caesars Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169.5 -110 Under 169.5 -110 | Phoenix +210 Las Vegas -260 |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169 -115 Under 169 -105 | Phoenix +200 Las Vegas -250 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -108 Las Vegas -5.5 -112 | Over 169.5 -110 Under 169.5 -110 | Phoenix +198 Las Vegas -250 |
| GambetDC | Phoenix +5.5 -120 Las Vegas -5.5 -130 | Over 169.5 -125 Under 169.5 -125 | Phoenix +175 Las Vegas -250 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169.5 -110 Under 169.5 -110 | Phoenix +195 Las Vegas -245 |
| Proline Ontario | Phoenix +5.5 -115 Las Vegas -5.5 -125 | OTB OTB | Phoenix +180 Las Vegas -278 |
From a moneyline perspective, only Connecticut was more profitable than Phoenix during the regular season. The Mercury returned 5.48 units for anyone who bet a unit on their moneyline for each game.
Tonight’s moneyline is -245 for the Aces and +205 for the Mercury, so bettors thinking that trend will continue can over triple their money if Phoenix pulls the upset. The totals will be interesting to watch throughout the series as well. Unsurprisingly, the Aces hit the most overs of any team in the league this season at 19.
The Mercury went over in both of their first two playoff games as well, but it’s worth noting that the first game snuck over the 164.5-point line with a late free throw as the 165th and final point while the second game took overtime to get there.
WNBA partner comes through with series lines
One of the WNBA’s two sports betting partners, PointsBet Sportsbook, has lines on which team will win each of these series. Among major Canadian and US legal sportsbooks, it’s the only one to make such action available so far this postseason.
PointsBet has Connecticut -450 to oust the Sky and the Aces -300 to reach the WNBA Finals for the second consecutive season. Those who wish to bet on a Phoenix upset can get +225 odds while the Sky blocking the Sun would payout +325.
These lines will move with each successive game, so bettors are advised to tune into games this week.
