Did Sportsbooks Overreact After 2021 WNBA Finals Game 2 On The Spread, Total For Game 3?

The WNBA Finals are heading back to Chicago all knotted up at one after the Phoenix Mercury pulled off an overtime win in an instant classic on Wednesday night. Hopefully, Game 3, which tips at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2, will be just as good.

With the winner of tonight’s game moving within a game of a title, there’s a ton on the line tonight. For those who have their money on the line as well, let’s check out how the betting markets are looking for tonight’s matchup and the series.

Books adjusting for venue

Sportsbooks are continuing to possibly over-adjust for home court in the WNBA playoffs. Game 2’s spread closed at Phoenix -4.5 at most Canadian and US-regulated sportsbooks while tonight’s line sits at Chicago -3.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook.

That’s a shift of eight points towards the home team despite the fact that road teams have outscored home teams during the playoffs (and covered in 60% of playoff games).

Based on that alone, the value could be with the Mercury for the next two games before swinging back towards Chicago should the series make it to game five.

Totals back down

The over has hit in both Finals games so far, but the second game didn’t get there until overtime. That line was set at 169.

Tonight’s total at FanDuel Sportsbook is down 2.5 points to 166.5. While regulation got to just 158, a move of over two points for one game might be as much of an overreaction as moving eight points for home court.

These teams are still combining to average over 173 points in the playoffs. In Game 2, both sides shot under their average from 3-point range, which is the most variable stat in basketball. Should each team knock down threes at an expected rate tonight, Game 3’s total could be closer to Game 1’s.

Sky remain slight series favorites

After entering the five-game series as +100 to +120 underdogs, the Sky have become the favorites at most books in what is now a three-game series. DraftKings Sportsbook gives the Chicago Sky -125 odds to take home the championship and has Phoenix listed at +105. Most other books have odds in the same neighborhood.

There is one book, however, that still favors the Mercury. PointsBet Sportsbook lists Phoenix at -115 and Chicago at -105, implying a 51% win probability for Phoenix in the series.

PointsBet opened as the book favoring the Mercury the least (-120, compared to -125 to -140 at most books), so the script has flipped in that regard. If the road teams continue to overcome the crowds, PointsBet may be the book that looks the sharpest on the series lines.