The Chicago Sky stole home court in game one of the WNBA Finals on Sunday, so as we get set for game two tonight it will be critical for the Phoenix Mercury to rebound with a win. Chicago entered the matchup as an underdog in the game and the series. The latter has changed, but sportsbooks still like Phoenix in the game tonight.
After a convincing performance in which the 91-77 score wasn’t fully indicative of how well Chicago played, how have Canadian and US-regulated sportsbooks adjusted for Game 2? Leading up to the 9 p.m. ET tip on ESPN, let’s take a look at how they are viewing tonight’s matchup.
Books like a bounce-back
After closing as 2.5-point favorites at PointsBet Sportsbook, the Mercury are now favored by 3.5 at some books and as many as four at others.
Despite the score in Game 1, there may be reasons for the line shift towards the Phoenix side. Mercury wing Sophie Cunningham seems likely to play after missing the first game, and her presence would be important both for Phoenix’s defense as well as its depth.
The other factor could be rest. The Mercury, who are already thin without Kia Nurse, were forced to play Game 1 on essentially a 36-hour turnaround from their game five semifinals win over the Las Vegas Aces. With two off-days leading up to this game, books may be banking on Phoenix being fresher tonight.
Total slightly up for Game 2
The closing line for the game total on Sunday was 167.5, so the final total of 168 was as close as it could get.
Tonight’s line has gone up a point and sits at 168.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook. As with the spread, rest could be a factor in this move. Rested teams have tended to push the pace more and thus engage in higher-scoring games.
Tonight’s total could also surpass that of Game 1 if the game is closer. Chicago built a lead of over 20 points in the second half of game one before the Mercury cut into it late, so the scoring slowed down in the later stages when the starters came out. The first quarter saw 45 combined points while there were only 33 in the fourth.
That could also be a trend worth betting on. Games get a little lower scoring as they go on even in the regular season, but that has been more extreme in the playoffs. Fourth-quarter scoring is nearly 20% lower than first-quarter scoring this postseason, so first-quarter overs and fourth-quarter unders at sportsbooks that offer them may be in play.
Series odds update
After opening as underdogs in the series with lines ranging from +100 to +120, the Sky are now firmly in the driver’s seat with -240 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Phoenix is listed at +190 and might remain slight underdogs even with a win tonight, given that Chicago will still hold home-court advantage in the series.
