Yazmin Jauregui has a shot to ascend the UFC women’s strawweight rankings at UFC Mexico. The only potential obstacle is Sam Hughes. Legal North American online sportsbooks don’t think Hughes will be much of an obstacle, however.
Sportsbooks have Jauregui as a strong favorite on the moneyline over Hughes for Saturday. While the path to victory does seem narrow for Hughes, there is a path. That information also gives bettors a hint to what to expect for method of victory markets on this fight.
Jauregui v. Hughes details
Jauregui and Hughes are the only women’s bout on the main card for UFC Mexico, taking place on Saturday, Feb. 24, 2024 at Arena CDMX in Mexico City. The main card action is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET. Fans can watch on ESPN+.
Jauregui comes in at 10-1, having suffered her first defeat in her last bout in August at the hands of Denis Gomes. Meanwhile, Hughes is 8-5 as a professional and won her last fight in April via decision. Hughes is two inches taller and half a pound heavier than Jauregi.
However, the two have an identical reach and leg reach at 64 and 36 inches, respectively. The tale of the tape beyond these basics show why Jauregui comes in as a strong favorite to get back on the winning side.
Handicapping Jauregui v. Hughes Saturday
Jauregui might be the native daughter in this bout but her resumé is about more than simply having support from her fellow Mexicans. Jauregui has a significant advantage knockdown average over Hughes and has won 75% of her fights via knockout. In addition, Jauregui’s fight average lasting over five minutes fewer than Hughes’.
Moreoever, Jauregui averages landing almost twice the number of significant strikes per minute as Hughes does. There is a path to victory for Hughes here, though, and it looks like it would be taking this bout to the mat early.
Hughes has some clear advantages when it comes to grappling, posting better numbers in both takedown accuracy and average. Hughes needs to exploit that as soon as possible in the fight, scoring enough points early to outlast a recovery by Jauregui.
The shortest odds in the method of victory markets for this fight are likely to be on Jauregui by decision. To date, Jauregui’s best performances have seen her weather initial storms then unleash a torrent of her own to overwhelm opponents. One way or another, sportsbooks expect Jauregui’s arm to be in the air Saturday night.
