After San Diego Wave FC made good on sportsbooks’ pick Saturday night thanks to four goals from Alex Morgan, more NWSL odds are up for bettors’ consideration today. Sunday’s trio of matches possess various narratives.
One match represents a clash of two clubs at various ends of an important statistical category. While the other two might not have such an obvious point of differentiation, some light digging reveals some important handicapping info.
NWSL odds for Sunday’s trio of matches
As of Sunday morning, five Canadian/US sports betting apps offer action on at least two of today’s matches. Those are:
On the 3-way moneylines on those apps, the Kansas City Current, OL Reign, and Angel City FC are the consensus favorites. Bettors can watch all three matches on Paramount+.
So, do today’s favorites merit that status? Is there some value in some other markets like props, spreads, and totals? That all depends on how you read the numbers. We’ll take a look at each match individually.
Kansas City Current v Houston Dash, 5 p.m. EDT
After opening the 2022 regular season with a 3-0 trouncing at Providence Park, the Current return to Children’s Mercy Park for their home opener looking for a better result. Houston lost its home opener, so the Dash are also seeking their first points of 2022.
These clubs played a home-and-home during the Challenge Cup. Kansas City won both matches with a goal differential of +4. The Current home match was the closer affair on the scoreboard, ending 2-1.
Across all competition so far this season, Kansas City has outperformed Houston in terms of xG. In fact, American Soccer Analysis‘ xG chart shows the Dash with a -0.81 xG differential.
Houston keeper Jane Campbell has posted the worst G-xG among qualifying keepers so far at 9.02. Kristen Hamilton, who scored four goals for the Current during the Challenge Cup and has a personal G-xG of 1.06 so far in all competitions, could create problems for Campbell.
OL Reign v Racing Louisville FC, 8 p.m. EDT
Although these clubs put together very different performances in the Challenge Cup this year, both clubs come in seeking their first points of the 2022 regular season. Today’s match is the home opener for OL Reign and the back half of a pair of season-opening away matches for Louisville.
It’s the first meeting of these clubs across all competitions in 2022. At Lumen Field in the Challenge Cup, OL Reign went 2-0-1 with a goal differential of +3.
On the road across all fixtures in 2022 so far, Racing is 1-2-1 with a goal differential of +1. However, the deeper numbers tell a different story about this match.
Louisville’s xGD sits at -4.81, a far cry from OL Reign’s 0.51. While Racing keeper Katie Lund has performed admirably so far this season with a G-xG of -0.24, the problem has been Louisville’s attack.
Emily Fox has Racing’s best G-xG figure at 0.79. Louisville has posted the fewest shots in the league as well so far.
Angel City FC v Orlando Pride, 8 p.m. EDT
On the trend of clubs seeking their first regular-season points Sunday, the Orlando Pride close the book on that. This match is not only the first meeting of these clubs in 2022 but their first meeting ever.
Both of these clubs struggled in the Challenge Cup but Angel City changed that narrative with a victory in its inaugural regular-season match. Orlando seems like a prime opportunity for Angel City to stay unbeaten, too.
The Pride have the league’s worst goal differential across all competitions in 2022 so far at -9. Meanwhile, Angel City has actually outperformed the statistical models, netting seven goals against an xG of 6.78.
While Christen Press has gotten a lot of attention for that, Jun Endo‘s 12 shots with a goal on 0.55 xG is another reason for Angel City’s success so far. Orlando’s situation in goal has been precarious, with three keepers seeing minutes so far this season.
