It’s rare to find a high-level women’s strawweight bout in which the path to victory for both fighters is so clear. Dern v Torres at UFC 273 on Saturday night is a prime example of such an uncommon narrative, though.
The opposing styles of Mackenzie Dern and Tecia Torres mean one of the fighters could look quite outclassed in Jacksonville. Betting the bout comes down to trying to guess which that will be.
Dern v Torres a tale of opposing strengths
The narratives here are quite simple. If Dern can get Torres to the mat, this fight could be over quickly. On the other hand, if the fight goes the distance, Torres could win by unanimous decision and with a convincing lead in the points.
Both fighters are in the top 10 of the women’s strawweight division but they come in on different trajectories. Dern lost her last fight while “The Tiny Tornado” will try for her fourth consecutive win on Saturday.
Dern has yet to lose back-to-back matches as a professional, though. Working in her favor in this matchup are height and reach advantages of three inches each. That might help her keep Torres from landing a ridiculous number of significant strikes while she tries to get a takedown.
However, Dern’s proficiency in taking opponents to the mat hasn’t matched her ability to force submissions if she gets there. She averages just 0.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. Her accuracy rate in takedown attempts sits at just 10%.
If she does execute a successful takedown, however, her ability to force the tap is unmatched in the current women’s strawweight division. That’s the risk to going for the reward with bets on Torres.
Sportsbooks dangling Torres like a carrot
On the moneyline, most legal Canadian and US sportsbooks have even money or better on a Torres victory. The best lines on a Dern win sat at -120 comparatively. For bettors who would like to back Dern but get some better value out of it, the method of victory markets might be the way to go.
BetMGM has Dern +200 odds on Dern to win by KO/TKO, DQ, or Submission, for example. For those who want to take a bigger risk, BetRivers offers a prop on the fight to end in the first 60 seconds of Round 1 with a +1400 payout.
You can get a little better deal if you go the other way on the method of victory, too. For instance, Caesars offers +135 on a Torres win by decision. At PointsBet, you will find +2800 odds on a Torres win in the third round.
Some of the books have specials you can use on the fight as well. Those include Torres by KO/TKO/DQ boosted to +750 at Caesars and UFC 273 Stepped-Up Parlay at DraftKings.
Bettors can watch Dern v Torres live on ESPN+ pay per view. The main card should begin at 10 p.m. EDT. UFC 273 is happening at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.