In the spirit of Laura Branigan‘s 1982 hit “Gloria,” legal US sportsbooks feel that Cheyanne Buys has Gloria “Glorinha” de Paula‘s number. However, the lack of experience for both fighters in UFC on ESPN 28 and de Paula’s frame advantage could power an upset.
Both women come into the Octagon Saturday in just their second fights since emerging from Dana White’s Contender Series. For those who stake a fighter here, the result might lie on which woman gets to a comfortable range.
Handicapping Buys v. de Paula for UFC on ESPN 28
This women’s strawweight bout is on the main card, with that set to start at 9 p.m. ET Saturday. de Paula boasts a two-inch advantage in height and a reach advantage of 4.5 inches over Buys.
de Paula’s strength is kickboxing, augmenting her reach edge. At the same time, Buys’ boxing prowess could nullify that strategy. In her limited action, Buys has shown an ability to pummel opponents with her hands. Both fighters lost their contract debuts and haven’t fought since.
While both fighters also come in with five professional wins, de Paula has one more fight on her record. Neither fighter has a clear advantage in grappling or takedown success rates, so this bout could be all about Buys’ ability to get in close. Sportsbooks like her to do exactly that.
Odds and a promo for the fight
Buys is a consensus favorite among major legal US sportsbooks.
|Buys to win
|de Paula to win
|William Hill Sportsbook
As far as the method of victory wagers go, sportsbooks seem to like Buys to win via decision. For example, DraftKings’ odds on Buys to win by points currently sit at -115. Other books have odds on the same bet as high as +110, however.
Props on either fighter finishing the other carry much longer odds, so it will be a surprise if either woman gets the win by anything other than a decision. However, given the small bodies of work for both contenders, taking a flier isn’t out of the question here.
Right now, there aren’t many promos for this bout available. BetMGM Sportsbook is offering a +650 parlay on de Paula plus Sean Strickland and Rani Yahya all to win.
Because of the relative lack of data on this fight, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for many MMA bettors to simply pass on this one. However, de Paula could represent good value if she’s able to keep Buys at kickboxing distance consistently. Maybe Buys doesn’t have her number after all.
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