It all comes down to this for the “White Mamba.” After winning two single-elimination games just to get to the semifinals, Diana Taurasi and the Phoenix Mercury will have to win another one in Game 5 against the Las Vegas Aces if they want to extend their impressive run.
It’s been a wacky series all around, and that includes the betting lines. After three straight blowouts one way or the other, it’s tough to know what to make of the spreads.
The total isn’t much easier to foresee. Game 2 and Game 3 smashed the over and the under, respectively, before Game 4 finally ended in the neighborhood of the sportsbooks’ lines.
The unpredictability is both exhilarating and maddening, but let’s try to make sense of it anyway from a betting perspective.
Aces back in the driver’s seat
After briefly taking on the role of the underdog — both in the series and in Game 4 — Las Vegas is once again favored tonight. The Aces opened Game 4 as favorites as well but line movement shifted the spread enough for it to close at Aces +1 after back-to-back losses of 26 or more points.
Nothing quite like a blowout road win and a return trip home to swing the lines back in your favor. Tonight’s spread sits at Aces -6 at BetRivers Sportsbook.
| Sportsbook | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169 -110 Under 169 -110 | OTB OTB |
| BetAmerica/Twinspires Sportsbook | Phoenix +6 -115 Las Vegas -6 -108 | Over 169 -112 Under 169 -112 | Phoenix +195 Las Vegas -245 |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169.5 -115 Under 169.5 -105 | Phoenix +180 Las Vegas -225 |
| BetRivers/PlaySugarHouse Sportsbook | Phoenix +6 -115 Las Vegas -6 -108 | Over 169 -112 Under 169 -112 | Phoenix +195 Las Vegas -245 |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | Phoenix +6 -110 Las Vegas -6 -110 | Over 169.5 -105 Under 169.5 -115 | Phoenix +215 Las Vegas -265 |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -104 Las Vegas -5.5 -118 | Over 168.5 -114 Under 168.5 -106 | Phoenix +205 Las Vegas -260 |
| GambetDC | Phoenix +5.5 -115 Las Vegas -5.5 -135 | Over 169.5 -115 Under 169.5 -135 | Phoenix +185 Las Vegas -270 |
| PointsBet Sportsbook | Phoenix +5.5 -110 Las Vegas -5.5 -110 | Over 169 -110 Under 169 -110 | Phoenix +185 Las Vegas -236 |
| Proline Ontario | Phoenix +5.5 -115 Las Vegas -5.5 -125 | OTB OTB | Phoenix +180 Las Vegas -278 |
The latest moneylines at FanDuel Sportsbook are Aces -260 and Mercury +205, implying a 72.2% win probability for the Aces. But the key to whether that comes to fruition might be Las Vegas’ shooting.
In the two blowout losses, the Aces’ backcourt trio of Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, and Riquna Williams combined to shoot just 5-for-24 from deep. In Game 4, they hit 10 of their 18 triples.
If the Aces are going to win, let alone cover, they’ll need their guards to be hitting again.
Sportsbook totals dropping again
The totals in this series have changed from the previous one by at least a point in every game as a result of the vastly inconsistent scoring totals. Tonight’s line is no different. It sits at 169 at PointsBet Sportsbook — 2.5 points lower than where Game 4 closed.
Game 4, at 169 points, came up just short of that total when Phoenix dribbled out the clock rather than shooting on their final possession.
Given the level to which this series has fluctuated in shot-making, and ultimately, scoring, it would be understandable to want to stay away from betting this line.
If you do want to play it, however, it’s worth noting that in the last seven winner-take-all WNBA playoff games, the over has not hit in regulation in any of them.
Then again, when you have the top two regular-season offenses who combined for over 200 points just over a week ago, the over is always in play. Especially when the line dropped over two points despite coming after a game in which the line was almost spot on.
